I'm wondering why, under the current conditions, you're not suggesting a short of the indexes (especially the QQQ's) or a short on AMAT or KLAC? It seems that they look like obvious candidates. Am I missing something? (January 16, 2002)
When news hits as did INTC, what happened with AMAT was pretty much as expected: a big cap down. There was more selling, but in both AMAT's and KLAC's situation, just $1 of a $4 and $5.30 loss on the session. Gaps to the upside and the downside are some of the hardest moves to play. That is why last night we indicated we would not jump in on the downside action as much of the damage would be done early. We would see the strength of the move down and if it was another distribution day, let the indexes set up a move to the downside we could take better advantage of. As discussed above we are going to let it do that. We were tempted to play the SOX and QQQ downside late in the session, but the Nasdaq was still above its 50 and 200 day MVA and we did not want to get jerked right back around if it held and tried to give a reflex bounce. We prefer to let the reflex occur, and if weak and it stalls at resistance, then move in and catch the next drop down which is often further than the first move down. That is why today as we noted last night, we were looking at those stocks that had set up downside moves even before the INTC news.
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