Found your column of August 18th most interesting. What indicators do you look at to conclude, "accumulation in the market started turning to churning and then to distribution"?
(August 22, 2001)
  Thanks for the interest in the weekend column. It was meant to get
people thinking and it appears it did. As far as the indicators regarding
accumulation, churning, and then distribution, we don't have to look any
further than the market itself. After the May high, the indexes started
to drift lower, but the entire time, the price and volume action remained
healthy, i.e., the up days were on stronger volume while the down days
were on weaker volume. That shows that there were net more buyers than
sellers in the market. It shows (watching block trades as well) that
institutions were slowly accumulating positions in stocks across the
board. The advance/decline line was also holding up well. That continued
up to the latter part of July when we started to see the indexes unable to
move to higher highs after some good price/volume action. On August 2,
the Nasdaq showed a doji on strong volume at the most recent July high and
started down again. That is a sign of some churning. Then it sold on
lighter volume, and that was okay, but not great. Then it started to sell
on rising volume, i.e., distributing. That started August 7 and
intensified as the month wore on. The result was a breakdown on stronger
volume, i.e., instead of accumulating shares the institutions started
lightening up on equities. That corresponded to the big slide down in the
dollar.
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