Is there a chance that you might discuss Brocade's (BRCD) earnings announcement on Wednesday, February 21, 2001? (February 20, 2001)

  BRCD is one of the earnings horses we really like but has been utterly crushed this year, much of the recent selling on the news from EMLX about its potential problems with future earnings. Most analysts expect BRCD to meet its estimates, something it has done with ease in the past, including in November. Brocade has not warned, a good sign, but at a recent Goldman Sachs technology conference (February 13, right after the EMLX blowup) the CEO made it clear that he was not going to talk about the company because it was in its quiet period. Thus, we don't have a lot of guidance if there were any recent hiccups. For these earnings, however, we don't see that as a problem. The big issue is whether BRCD drops any bombs about future business tomorrow after the close in its 4:30 ET conference call. The stock has already been plundered, but it was also one of the last quality stocks to really hold up on the heels of its excellent earnings and stock split in November. We anticipate good earnings for the prior quarter, but it remains to be seen as to whether BRCD will have to give cloudy guidance moving forward. This is a great company and we would not be surprised for it to say the outlook is great as did CIEN. Problem is, not many are believing it when companies say this, and when they do rally, if the move does not stick, they tend to give it all back. We really like BRCD. It is not one of the old guard, but one of those companies that has been growing sales and revenues at an incredibly rapid rate. It is one we feel will recover when positive earnings outlooks begin to be factored in. When that happens is what we are watching for.


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